CBRE Forecasts Canadian Hotels Revenue to Rebound an Impressive 43% in 2022
31 Mar 2022
Recovery to be led by British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario, which are projected to see RevPAR levels of $103, $94 and $82 respectively.
CBRE’s just-released Canadian Hotel Industry Outlook projects that nationwide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR)—the key measure of hotel performance—is expected to grow by 43% nationwide to reach $81 in 2022. While this represents a big improvement over 2021’s RevPAR of $57, it is still just 76% of 2019 levels.
Though the impact of the Omicron variant led to a softer than expected start to the year for hotels, however, RevPAR is forecasted to improve over the balance of the year as confidence increases. Through the second half of the year, monthly RevPAR performance is expected to be in the range of 80% to 90% of 2019 levels.
“The impact of leisure demand cannot be understated and has been an important part of the recovery to this point – however going forward it will be critical that business and government travel levels ramp up to drive performance in off-peak periods,” says CBRE Hotels Director Nicole Nguyen.
Although some regions and markets may rebound more quickly and others will take longer, the industry as a whole is expected to recover to 2019 RevPAR levels in 2024.
“Across the country, the past two years have been the best of times and the worst of times, with resorts and secondary/tertiary markets doing quite well on a relatively basis. Unfortunately, the major city centres and corresponding airport markets have really struggled,” says Nguyen. “Major urban downtown hotels have the biggest gap to close because in addition to being major international tourism destinations, they are heavily reliant on corporate and meeting/conference demand, which has been almost non-existent.”
Recovery Led by British Columbia, Ontario & Quebec
CBRE expects the recovery in 2022 to be led by British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario which are projected to see RevPAR levels of $103, $94 and $82 respectively. In each of these three provinces supply growth will be moderate, allowing strong demand conditions to drive occupancy improvements. More importantly each of these provinces will see ADR growth ranging from 8% to 13%, accelerating the RevPAR recovery.
A city-to-city comparison suggests that for some major markets 2022 performance will help to move the needle towards more normal conditions.
Greater Montreal is expected to lead Canadian markets, with RevPAR growth of 88% to reach $94. Greater Quebec City is close behind with a $93 RevPAR, growth of 70%. St. John’s and Greater Halifax are also expected to see strong RevPAR growth, with 60% for both cities. Greater Toronto’s RevPAR is expected to grow 50% to $85 as the downtown core recovers and suburban markets build on 2021 performance.
In Western Canada, Greater Vancouver is expected to see the strongest RevPAR, growing 48% to $117 —the highest in Canada by a considerable margin. Calgary and Edmonton are projected to grow RevPAR more than 50%, but lingering supply impacts and fundamental economic challenges remain. Nevertheless, CBRE expects Edmonton to reach $53 and Calgary to reach $62 in RevPAR for 2022.
“The good news is that we anticipate hotels across Canada to be well on their way back to full strength by the end of this year,” says Nguyen. “In fact, depending on how substantially consumer confidence rebounds, and to what degree business travel picks back up, there’s even the possibility that the hotel industry exceeds expectations. That would be welcome news for a change!”
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