Intelligent Investment
Central Bank Balancing Act
Canada Monthly Mortgage Commentary
March 31, 2023 2 Minute Read
On top of the ongoing struggle to tame inflation, global central banks in recent weeks were forced to contend with the fallout of a sudden banking sector turmoil emanating from the U.S. The massive reshuffling of deposits among U.S. banks prompted heightened concern in credit markets and led to material declines in bond yields around the globe. To reinstate confidence, global central banks and regulators quickly moved to provide liquidity, guarantee deposits and stabilize impaired banks via seizure or guiding hands. This level of response was much quicker than seen during the Global Financial Crisis with stability and containment relatively intact.
Meanwhile, central banks also had to balance this with the need to continue fighting inflation. On this front, central banks largely stuck with their original monetary policy plans. The Federal Reserve pressed forward with another 25 bps interest rate increase in March. However, it also tempered its language around future interest rate hikes given expectations that credit conditions may tighten for households and businesses in the current environment. This shift in stance had the additional benefit of relieving some pressure on the Bank of Canada, which had paused its interest rate increases this month. The tempered rate hike expectations by the Federal Reserve minimizes the policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Canada while also buttressing the Canadian dollar. While both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada continue to reiterate the need for interest rates to remain high or potentially rise further, some have begun to speculate on bets for interest rate cuts starting in September.
Looking ahead, the turmoil from the banking sector will be felt to a greater extent in the U.S. given its market structure. In Canada, credit conditions in real estate may be impacted by higher spreads stemming mostly from the much-anticipated changes imposed by OSFI and the implementation of Basel III+. If there is any consistency, it is that debt liquidity will continue to find its way to the highest quality sponsors and assets that present enduring NOI and prudent leverage profiles.
Economic Highlights:
- GDP growth in Q4 2022 fell to an annualized 0.0% after five consecutive quarterly increases, resulting in full year economic growth of 3.4% in 2022.
- Employment rose by 21,800 jobs in February 2023 and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%.
- Inflation eased further to 5.2% in February 2023, reaching its lowest level since January 2022.
Viewpoints:
- Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 4.5% Even as Fed Pushes Higher
- Central banks in a bind over burgeoning financial crisis and inflation
- World central banks urge calm, prepare for more market turmoil in wake of Credit Suisse rescue
- Powell Stresses Commitment to Cooling Prices as Fed Hikes Rates
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