CBRE Outlook: Canadian Hotels Will Return to Pre-Pandemic Revenues in 2023 – Two Years Ahead of Forecast

Vancouver Montreal and Toronto lead the way, with over half of Canada’s major cities expecting RevPAR above $100 next year, according to CBRE’s new hotels sector outlook

After a strong summer of leisure travel nationwide, and with a big assist from inflation, CBRE is projecting the Canadian hotels market to finish 2022 at 92% of the revenue per available room (RevPAR) achieved in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Moderate revenue growth will continue into 2023 as hotel operators push for higher room rates, with RevPAR expected to grow 11% to hit a high of $107 next year. This marks a return to 2019 RevPAR levels and an increase of 70% over the industry’s 2021 performance.

Over half of the major urban markets in Canada are expected to see RevPAR above $100 in 2023, with Vancouver reaching $182, Montreal $135, and Toronto $129.

“Strong leisure travel and a rapid rebound in the average daily rate in many cities is producing a strong hotel performance,” says CBRE Hotels Director David Ferguson. “Overnight visits from the U.S. continue to recover, along with visitation from other key international markets.

“However, travel from some key markets, notably the Asia/Pacific region, is still challenged. Cities and hotels that serve corporate travel, meetings and group travel face a slower recovery.”

CBRE’s forecast does not anticipate a significant economic downturn at this point, nor does it factor in any pandemic-related lockdowns or the reintroduction of travel restrictions.

While RevPAR is forecast to continue trending upward, reaching pre-pandemic levels in 2023, bottom line performance across the Canadian accommodation sector is lagging and is anticipated to take much longer to recover. The struggle to find employees, higher wages and supply cost increases are among the key issues impacting financial results.

“While topline performance is essentially back to 2019 levels, bottom-line recovery is still a few years away. That means hotel operators aren’t proclaiming victory just yet,” says Ferguson. “The coming year will bring continued economic growth, with the return of corporate and conference travel, though at modest growth rates compared to 2022.”

Quebec Drives Revenue Growth

Eastern Canada is expected to continue to see strong leisure demand and overall RevPAR grow 12% in 2023 to reach $114.The region’s growth is expected to be led by Quebec – Montreal in particular, with projected RevPAR growth for that city of 18% in 2023. Ottawa, Quebec City and Toronto are projected to see RevPAR growth in the range of 13% to 14%.  

Western Canada is forecast to grow by 11% to finish at $104 in 2023 as leisure demand remains a strong driver. Regina and Saskatoon are expected to see gains of 15% and 16% RevPAR growth in 2023, while Edmonton and Winnipeg are projected to grow RevPAR by 14% and 15%, and Calgary and Vancouver are expected to grow by 12% and 13% RevPAR, with Vancouver’s reaching a nation-leading $182.

“Operators continue to surge forward and recover in terms of rates, whether it's an urban property, suburban property or a leisure destination,” says Ferguson. “We expect that momentum to continue into next year, albeit at a more muted pace. The hotels industry is not so much in recovery anymore – it’s looking at how it’s going to grow in the next year.”