Blue Collar, White Collar, No Collar: Labour Market Trends in Your Neighbourhood

Forget Statistics Canada’s monthly employment report. CBRE Canada’s Location Intelligence team generates dynamic views of population and labour force growth patterns in major markets such as Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

You can see how those cities grew between 2018 and 2023, with some areas experiencing a surge of blue collar jobs, such as construction and manufacturing. In others it is waves of white collar jobs, like tech, that have washed over a particular area. Some areas have seen growth in both blue and white collar employment.

The patterns that emerge can determine where we live, where businesses should locate and how developers should allocate investment dollars.

“It’s a new era for Location Intelligence,” says CBRE Canada Senior GIS Manager Naz Ali. “You can scroll through maps and your city and neighbourhood comes to life. You can see trends develop clearly that you might have only had a sense of.

“I’m really excited to deploy this mapping technology and for people be able to see how the ways we work and they types of jobs we do are evolving in cities across Canada.”

Calgary

The most marked employment growth in Cowtown has taken place in Calgary’s industrial northeast quadrant. That’s where the total residential population grew by 10.6% between 2018 and 2023, and is projected to grow by a dizzying 27.4% in the next five years to 294,777. That would be the highest growth rate in Canada.

Calgary as a whole is projected to see 13.2% population growth by 2028, which seems to reflect the droves migrating from neighbouring B.C. and Ontario in search of a more reasonable cost of living.

Where are all these new inhabitants working? The white collar workforce in Calgary’s northeast quadrant, which represents 45.6% of the quadrant’s population, has grown thanks to an uptick in tech employment. The blue collar workforce represents 23.9% of the population, with sales and service identified as the dominant occupations in the area.

The map shows this growth pattern clearly, with clusters of new industrial developments seeming to spur residential development to accommodate the growing labour force, as well as a population that’s looking farther afield for affordable housing options.

Toronto

The Greater Toronto Area is known for its tech talent, but its suburban blue collar boom may be most surprising.

The GTA, with a current population of 6.8 million, is poised to see 9.4% population growth between 2023 and 2028. The fastest growing area in the past five years was Ajax, with 16.3% growth, and the fastest-growing areas in the next five years will be Oakville and Oshawa (+17.2%) and Vaughan (+14.2%).

In terms of workforce evolution, Vaughan has seen its white collar population grow by 23.1% between 2018 and 2023 – with business, finance and administration the dominant occupations – while its blue collar population decreased by 6.7% in the same period.

Mississauga, where business, finance and administration are also the dominant occupations, also saw its white collar population grow by 12.0% between 2018 and 2023, while its blue collar workforce declined by 9.2%.

In the city of Toronto itself, where the current population of 3.0 million is projected to increase by 6.3% in the next five years, the white collar jobs reign supreme, representing nearly 60% of the workforce, with blue collar at 11.1%.

This growth is visible in the maps as a white band expands through the centre of the city from the lake north to Richmond Hill, essentially along transit lines.

The maps also show the industrial intensification of Toronto’s northwest region, particularly around Brampton, where the blue collar population increased by 15.5% between 2018 and 2023, for a total blue collar workforce of 106,597.

The map shows residential developments cropping up over the past five years in response to the growth in industrial projects in the area.

Vancouver

In Metro Vancouver, the cities of Surrey, Langley and Abbotsford saw the most drastic changes in their white collar populations, with at least 18% growth between 2018 and 2023.

Surrey saw a corresponding dip in its blue collar population, down 13.1% over the past five years; Langley also saw its blue collar population drop in the same period, by 5.9%.

The dynamic map shows a mixed wave of white and blue as it moves east into the Fraser Valley.

“This could be indicative of housing trends as people are heading farther out in search of affordable homes and want to live closer to where they work,” Ali says.

Montreal

In the Greater Montreal Area, some drastic shifts come to light.

Laval, a hotbed for the biotech industry, saw the most dramatic change in its workforce composition over the past five years, with its dominant white collar population growing by nearly 33.0% to 155,951 while its blue collar population decreased by 20.2%, from 37,758 to 30,148.

This is shown on the map as a white band moving westward across the island of Montreal.

“It’s really quite remarkable when you see it represented that way,” says Ali.

“Our mapping systems illustrate labour force trends and create a captivating and enlightening experience that reveals patterns that conventional mapping systems miss.”

“We see this technology giving businesses and investors a real edge in understanding the interconnected dynamics of the labour force and the real estate market,” she adds. “For the average person, it’s also just really cool to see what’s happening in their neighbourhoods.”

To explore each market in detail, click here.

CITIES IN TRANSITION | Blue Collar & White Collar Employment Trends