Intelligent Investment
The Fog of War
Canada Monthly Market Commentary
June 26, 2025 2 Minute Read
The strain the global economy has come under from the months-long U.S. trade war is becoming increasingly evident. Weakening economic indicators have led to downward revisions to global growth projections from only just earlier this year. The OECD lowered its 2025 global growth forecast 20 bps to 2.9%, noting the slowdown is most concentrated in North America and China while also warning growth could be even weaker if protectionism increases. The World Bank cut its forecast for 2025 by 40 bps to 2.3% and said it marks “the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions.”
While the Canadian economy may have been slightly stronger than expected in Q1 2025, the Bank of Canada attributed this boost to a pull-forward of activity that effectively “borrows economic strength from the future.” Faced with looming tariffs, Canadian exports had surged and businesses started to stockpile inventory ahead of the levies. Business investment on machinery and equipment was also stronger in Q1 2025 as was consumer spending despite weaker consumer confidence. Accordingly, the central bank expects Q2 2025 growth to now be much weaker. Recent economic data has already started to corroborate this slowdown with Canada seeing potentially the largest monthly drop in retail sales in a year, the unemployment rate rising to a 9-year high outside of the pandemic and a significant, widespread decline in exports. Meanwhile, core measures of inflation have also risen slightly and further complicates matters for the Bank of Canada.
Faced with unusual levels of uncertainty, the Bank of Canada has continued to hold the policy interest rate at 2.75% and is opting to wait for more information on the trade war impacts. Given the challenge with navigating the Canadian economy amid such heightened risks, the central bank has had to become “less forward-looking than usual.” Similarly in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has also kept its policy rate unchanged and noted the lack of conviction with its own interest rate path projections. Further geopolitical upheaval is only adding to the market uncertainty, notably the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East albeit with a tentative ceasefire in place.
In the short term, another trade deadline approaches with the 90-day pause on tariffs set to expire on July 9th. However, most of the tariffs remain in an ongoing legal dispute and recent progress on trade deals between the U.S. and the U.K., China and also Canada are positive signs. For now at least, the overall Canadian economy remains “softer but not sharply weaker.”
Economic Highlights:
- Trade deficit rises to record high of $7.1 billion in April 2025 amid significant and widespread decline in exports.
- Total employment was relatively flat in May 2025 with 8,800 new jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 7.0% for its highest since 2016 outside of the pandemic.
- Advanced estimates indicate retail sales fell 1.1% in May 2025, which would mark its largest drop in a year.
Viewpoints:
- Canadian economy will be among those hit hardest by global slowdown, says OECD
- World Bank sharply cuts global growth outlook on trade turbulence
- Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement
- U.S. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, sees two cuts in 2025
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